Fuzzy model-based reconstruction of paleovegetation in Ethiopia

Abstract

We introduce a new method to compute plant distribution in Ethiopia under paleoclimatic conditions using fuzzy logic. Using a published map of the potential vegetation for Ethiopia we decipher the boundary conditions for the main vegetation units shown, reflecting modern climatic conditions for temperature and precipitation in this region. Fuzzy logic using these climatic values on a GIS platform then derived the computational map of the potential vegetation. Comparing it with the original map shows a general correspondence of about 90%. By changing the underlying climate parameters, we then used this model for hypothetical paleoclimatic conditions to simulate the vegetational response on these changed climate settings. Finally, vegetational response maps for Ethiopia are presented for two scenarios: (i) a colder and drier condition (such as the Last Glacial Maximum) and (ii) a warmer and wetter condition (such as the last interglacial) than today.