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Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias‑adjusted CMIP6 models

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dc.contributor.author Ayugi, Brian
dc.contributor.author Shilenje, Zablon Weku
dc.contributor.author Babaousmail, Hassen
dc.contributor.author Sian, Kenny Lim Kam
dc.contributor.author Mumo, Richard
dc.contributor.author Dike, Victor Nnamdi
dc.contributor.author Iyakaremye, Vedaste
dc.contributor.author Chehbouni, Abdelghani
dc.contributor.author Ongoma, Victor
dc.date.accessioned 2024-06-14T06:31:40Z
dc.date.available 2024-06-14T06:31:40Z
dc.date.issued 2022-04-09
dc.identifier.citation Ayugi,A. at.el. (2022) Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models. Natural Hazards, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05341-8 en_US
dc.identifier.issn 15730840
dc.identifier.uri https://repository.biust.ac.bw/handle/123456789/577
dc.description.abstract The ongoing global warming has caused unprecedented changes in the climate system, leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes. This study uses the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data to investigate projected changes in drought events over East Africa (EA) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-4.0, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 data are bias-corrected using a quantile mapping method, with the Climatic Research Unit’s precipitation dataset as reference. Drought is quantified using the standardized precipitation index and different measures of drought are estimated: drought duration, drought frequency, drought severity, and drought intensity. Evaluating the accuracy and reliability of historical data before and after bias correction demonstrates the importance of the approach. The overall distribution after bias correction depicts a close agreement with observation. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean demonstrate superiority over individual Global Circulation Models. Projected future changes show enhancement in precipitation over most parts of EA in the far future under different SSP scenarios. However, the arid and semi-arid regions are expected to receive less amount of precipitation, whereas the highlands and lake regions are expected to receive a larger amount of precipitation increase. Furthermore, the dry areas of EA are likely to experience more frequent drought events with longer duration, stronger intensity, and severity in the far future. Overall, this study identifies possible drought hotspots over EA, enabling early preparation for such events. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship Acknowledge the infrastructural support provided by Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Springer Nature en_US
dc.subject Precipitation en_US
dc.subject Drought en_US
dc.subject Climate change en_US
dc.subject Quantile mapping en_US
dc.subject SSP en_US
dc.subject East Africa en_US
dc.title Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias‑adjusted CMIP6 models en_US
dc.description.level phd en_US
dc.description.accessibility unrestricted en_US
dc.description.department mss en_US


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