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Projection of extreme temperature events over the Mediterranean and Sahara using bias-corrected CMIP6 Models

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dc.contributor.author Babaousmail, Hassen
dc.contributor.author Ayugi, Brian
dc.contributor.author Rajasekar, Adharsh
dc.contributor.author Zhu, Huanhuan
dc.contributor.author Oduro, Collins
dc.contributor.author Mumo, Richard
dc.contributor.author Ongoma, Victor
dc.date.accessioned 2022-06-14T12:16:54Z
dc.date.available 2022-06-14T12:16:54Z
dc.date.issued 2022-05-06
dc.identifier.citation Babaousmail, H. et.al. (2022) Projection of extreme temperature events over the Mediterranean and Sahara using bias-corrected CMIP6 models, Atmosphere, 13 (741), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050741 en_US
dc.identifier.issn 20734433
dc.identifier.uri http://repository.biust.ac.bw/handle/123456789/447
dc.description.abstract Climate change continues to increase the intensity, frequency and impacts of weather and climate extremes. This work uses bias-adjusted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) model datasets to investigate the future changes in temperature extremes over Mediterranean (MED) and Sahara (SAH) regions. The mid- (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) are studied under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Quantile mapping function greatly improved the performance of CMIP6 by reducing the notable biases to match the distribution of observation data, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Results show persistent significant warming throughout the 21st century, increasing with the increase in radiative forcing. The MED will record a higher increase in temperature extremes as compared to SAH. The warming is supported by the projected reduction in cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p), with the reduction in the number of cold nights exceeding cold days. Notably, warm spell duration index (WSDI) and summer days (SU) have a positive trend in both timelines over the entire study area. There is a need to simulate how climate sensitive sectors, such as water and agriculture, are likely to be affected by projected changes under different scenarios for informed decision making in the choice and implementation of adaptation and mitigation effective measures. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute en_US
dc.subject Climate change en_US
dc.subject Extreme temperatures en_US
dc.subject Projections en_US
dc.subject CMIP6 en_US
dc.subject North Africa en_US
dc.subject Mediterranean en_US
dc.title Projection of extreme temperature events over the Mediterranean and Sahara using bias-corrected CMIP6 Models en_US
dc.description.level phd en_US
dc.description.accessibility unrestricted en_US
dc.description.department mss en_US


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