BIUSTRE

Analysis of the mitigation strategies for COVID-19: from mathematical modelling perspective

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author Kassa, Semu Mitiku
dc.contributor.author Njagarah, John Boscoh Hatson
dc.contributor.author Terefe, Yibeltal Adane
dc.date.accessioned 2021-09-01T14:49:07Z
dc.date.available 2021-09-01T14:49:07Z
dc.date.issued 2020-09
dc.identifier.citation Kassa, S. M., Njagarah, J. B. H. and Terefe, Y. A. (2020) Analysis of the mitigation strategies for COVID-19: from mathematical modelling perspective. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 138, 109968.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109968. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 09600779
dc.identifier.uri http://repository.biust.ac.bw/handle/123456789/334
dc.description.abstract In this article, a mathematical model for the transmission of COVID-19 disease is formulated and analysed. It is shown that the model exhibits a backward bifurcation at R0=1 when recovered individuals do not develop a permanent immunity for the disease. In the absence of reinfection, it is proved that the model is without backward bifurcation and the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for R0<1. By using available data, the model is validated and parameter values are estimated. The sensitivity of the value of R0 to changes in any of the parameter values involved in its formula is analysed. Moreover, various mitigation strategies are investigated using the proposed model and it is observed that the asymptomatic infectious group of individuals may play the major role in the re-emergence of the disease in the future. Therefore, it is recommended that in the absence of vaccination, countries need to develop capacities to detect and isolate at least 30% of the asymptomatic infectious group of individuals while treating in isolation at least 50% of symptomatic patients to control the disease. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship Botswana International University of Science and Technology (BIUST) supported research through the project entitled ‘Research Initiation grant of the office of the DVCRI of BIUST, with grant number DVC/RDI/2/1/161(34). en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Elsevier en_US
dc.subject Backward bifurcation en_US
dc.subject COVID-19 en_US
dc.subject Disease threshold en_US
dc.subject Epidemiological model en_US
dc.subject Mitigation strategy en_US
dc.subject Self-protection en_US
dc.subject Sensitivity analysis en_US
dc.title Analysis of the mitigation strategies for COVID-19: from mathematical modelling perspective en_US
dc.description.level phd en_US
dc.description.accessibility unrestricted en_US
dc.description.department mss en_US


Files in this item

Icon
Name: Kassas_CSF_2020.pdf
Size: 529.2Kb
Format: PDF
View/Open

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

  • Faculty of Sciences
    This collection is made up of pre and post research articles created by both staff and students from Faculty of Sciences

Show simple item record

Search BIUSTRE


Browse

My Account